Week 9 in This Vale of Tears

Experienced readers will notice that we've changed our name from The SEC Misery Index to This Vale of Tears. Last week a Google search revealed that "Misery Index" had already been done. We were disappointed, but now we celebrate this opportunity. For is not misery a spiritual condition? Does it not cry for redemption, however ephemeral?

I mean, will Arkansas fans ever taste final redemption? I don't think so. But they want it. So. Very. Badly.

We've reached the point in the season at which disillusionment has set in far more broadly than in Arkansas. As Siddhartha knew, deep pain comes from expectations. Once those expectations are done away with -- are you hearing this, Starkville and both Columbias? -- pain diminishes in its acuity. Oxford and College Station, comfort awaits, for now you know your place.

We've also learned to calibrate our expectations for big games. SEC football is so intense that we have to allow for letdowns. How to recognize a letdown? Let us consider three factors.

1. You just played an intense game that meant a lot to you.
2. It was on the road.
3. You won.

Any of these three factors predicts a letdown. Against quality opposition, the combination is deadly. Ironically, winning seems to be more costly than losing. Only Alabama can rise above it. Look for the Pattern below.

So in order of pain, our rankings.

1. Arkansas fans, don't let yourselves dwell in self-pity. It's not as bad as it looks. At least, it doesn't have to be. Yes, you gave up 543 rushing yards (!!!) to a mediocre offense that lacked its starting running back. Yes, we sensed you were overrated. But you're also a victim of the Pattern, having played Alabama and Ole Miss (albeit, both at home) before visiting Auburn. And you beat Ole Miss, the kiss of death. Auburn surely exposed weaknesses on both lines, but your QB remains splendid and courageous. You're not that bad.

2. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is feeling a world of hurt. No one was surprised by the quick 10-0 lead. But then Leonard Fournette. Dear Lord. Ole Miss is too good on defense, too tough, too well disciplined to fall apart like that. And fall apart, it did. Again, the Rebs succumbed to the Pattern. And momentum is crashing in. Auburn is next, and although Mississippi is the better team, Auburn is gonna beat Mississippi in Oxford. Just too much disappointment.

3.  Only because it still held some tatters of hope does Mississippi State outrank Mizzou and Carolina. It's clear that Kentucky is only modestly bad. It's also true that the Cats are more formidable at home than on the road. But now State faces the worst of dilemmas. The program is moving backwards, a 3-9 season seems very, very likely, and Dan Mullen is the best coach the Bullies have ever had. They're proud in Starkville, and falling behind Arkansas and Ole Miss is the kiss of death for a coach. I recommend hanging in one more year.

4. Missouri, what the actual heck? We briefly thought you might just be bad rather than putrid. And then MTSU hangs 34 points on you -- in the first half. You come back and take the lead, then you find yourself behind by 10 in the fourth quarter. Just too much. This is a special level of miserable.

5. Everybody, congratulate South Carolina on its heroic win against UMass, the current number 141 in the Sagarin ratings! One. Four. One. Yes, the Gamecocks built a respectable 34-14 lead before hanging on by their little chicken toes. But someone named Marquis Young rushed for 123 yards against Carolina, and we
just
don't
know
what to say.

6-7. Florida and Georgia didn't play, as is customary before the Cocktail Party. Florida is 5-1 on smoke and mirrors -- well, on the SEC East being awful -- and the Gators will finish with a nice record. For its part, Georgia is just not good. Look for a decisive Gator win next week -- decisive, but not a blowout.

8. You'd expect big tears from Texas A&M, but if you see any, they're fake. Deep in their hearts, Aggies fans knew they weren't in Alabama's class. The Aggies took a brief lead in the third quarter after Bama had squandered multiple opportunities, then the truth came to light. The Aggies just couldn't stop Alabama's running game. And while Trevor Knight is a dynamic QB, Bama's pass rush is just too, too much. Watch out: A&M is a very good team. They just ran into Bama. No shame there.

9. In the words of my high school coach, Buddy Moore, Vanderbilt fans don't know whether to wind their ass or scratch their watch. The Commodores have scratched their way to 4-4, with an outside chance of a bowl game. But let's face it: You should put away Tennessee State well before the fourth quarter, and that bowl game requires beating Auburn, Mississippi, or Tennessee in addition to Missouri. In the end, Vandy peeps will feel good at 5-7, with happy momentum and the knowledge that they really "should" have beaten Carolina.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE: Vandy plays Auburn next week. I'm an alum of both Vandy (PhD, 1996) and the Pat Dye Football Camp (1981). I always root for the team that has the most to gain. Last time, it was Vandy. It might look like I should choose Vandy this time, but here's my reasoning. Vandy is not much happier at 5-7 than at 6-6 plus a bowl game. But Auburn is really building something that could grow to be special. So I'll root for Auburn with a divided heart. Auburn is just too much for Vandy. Vandy can't score on Auburn, but Auburn shouldn't blow them out. So long as Vandy doesn't blow up with turnovers, it'll be a decisive but respectable Auburn win.

10. That was a really nice win for Kentucky. We admit we'd written off the Cats as a disaster. And really they are. We just had no idea how weak the East would be. They're also destined for a bowl game, with games against Missouri and Georgia straight ahead. Win one of those and beat Peay (we still love saying that.), and a bowl it is. Stoops will keep his job, and maybe the Cats will go back to improving. But make no mistake: this year has been ugly. Lose to both Mizzou and Georgia, and there's a coaching change ahead.

11. Tennessee didn't play. Teams typically do poorly after playing Alabama, so they're happy with a bye week. And rooting against Florida every week, since a Gators loss will probably hand them the East and an invitation to lose spectacularly to Alabama again.

12. Auburn is very, very happy after its complete dismantling of Arkansas. But let's be cautious. The Bielemas ran into the Pattern, and they were just worn out. Some big plays early set the snowball rolling downhill, and -- to its credit -- Auburn just kept gathering rocks and snow. It's a very good thing Auburn has already faced LSU, a match parents should not show their children for its physicality. Now we can say this: Auburn can beat anyone it plays, but it has to keep improving, especially the passing game, and it has to play well. By the way, Auburn now ranks #7 in Sagarin. That's probably about right.

BONUS: Good signs for Auburn. It didn't need the rehabbing Kerryon Johnson against Arkansas, and it didn't overuse Kamryn Petway. They'll need both.

DOUBLE BONUS: Auburn doesn't enjoy Bama's spectacular depth on the defensive line, but it's not that far away. Three Tiger linemen will depart for the NFL this year. Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams are spectacular. But three more are emerging to be just as good: the spectacular Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown are true freshmen. But watch Byron Cowart! Two years removed from being the nation's #1 recruit, the defensive end hasn't done much yet. But Auburn's moving him inside to tackle, and he made a big impact against Arkansas, just dominating people. Watch out, people.

13. LSU loves beating Ole Miss. The Tigers have no true rival, so they settle for being hated on a lower level by everybody else. This whipping of the uppity Rebels (and don't you love the phrase, uppity Rebels?) showed that LSU is still LSU. Bama is next, and it's easy to forget: an LSU win likely puts the Tigers in the championship game! Don't count on it. Bama will win a close one against LSU. But keep that in mind.

14. Bama, yikes. Let's assume Bama was feeling the Pattern, coming off a road win against historic rival Tennessee. Only, the game wasn't close. Bama stumbled around for a half, then righted the ship. Never was there a question who had the better team. Once again, Bama scored a defensive touchdown. That's 10 games in a row with a non-offensive touchdown, an all-time record, and 12 such scores this season. And let's pause to grieve the loss of Eddie Jackson, an all-world recruit who found out he needed to improve at Alabama -- and who has improved greatly as a safety and punt returner to become an All-American. Three of those TDs are his.

BONUS: BAMA AND THE PLAYOFFS. Ohio State's loss last night doesn't diminish the Buckeyes' chances one bit, but it does remind us that every team is more likely to lose than to go undefeated. I expect Bama to make it all the way to the playoffs loss-free, but they do face both sets of resurgent Tigers. Bama's only apparently weakness is that Hurts isn't particularly awesome when things get sketchy around him. Bama knows what Ohio State just found out: a truly great team can lose. But gosh, Alabama has dominated most everybody they've seen. Even Ole Miss started out with a huge lead built on quirky plays but couldn't hold on.

THE VALE'S DELIVERER OF TEARS. Last week we singled out Vanderbilt's Zach Cunningham and called attention to Alabama's Reuben Foster as a case study in the Tide's depth. Confessionally, the Vale's favorite players are Auburn's twin defensive ends, Carl Lawson and Marlon Davidson, who play with true passion. But this week Alabama's Mack Wilson takes the cake for two devastating hits on kickoff returns.

Here's #1 on Speedy Noil, who somehow abides among the living.

Noil lost a tooth, as you can see here.

Wilson's second victim was Justin Evans, who apparently has entered the witness protection program. Or should. Immediately.

CBS debated whether these hits were legal. Look, a kickoff returner is a fast moving target. They're legal. And inspirational. All hail Mack Wilson.