Monday, October 31, 2016

Week 10 in the SEC Vale of Tears: Smokey's Sniffles and Magnolia Misery

If you're tempted to think of SEC football players as simple hired hands, consider this photo taken by Auburn offensive guard Alex Kozan upon returning to campus after Saturday night's win over Ole Miss.



The state of Mississippi is feeling some hurt right now, and outsiders will need an explanation. Traditionally, Alabama and Auburn dominate the Mississippi schools, but both Ole Miss and State have been punching back lately. Ole Miss won the state of Alabama last year, you know. Apart from tradition, there's no reason for Ole Miss to lag behind the Alabama programs. (State, being both small and in the SEC's worst college town, has a steeper hill to climb.) Ole Miss was primed to go big this year, but disappointing losses against great teams, a spate of injuries, and the specter of NCAA sanctions all have the Rebs feeling like their progress is threatened. That an Auburn player like Kozan is feeling emotional after winning in Oxford tells you how far Hugh Freeze has brought Ole Miss.

1. Stewart Mandel tweeted the possibility that Alabama broke Tennessee. I'm not so sure that's the case; the Vale has been skeptical of the Vols all along. But there's no question which mascot is howling at the moon the saddest these days. All Tennessee had to do was beat inferior teams and let Florida lose to LSU. I don't know what's wrong with Tennessee, but something clearly is.

News flash: Jalen Hurd has left the Tennessee program and intends to transfer. This is 14 players recruited in 2014 who have left the program. So yeah. Something ain't right.

2. Remember, you cry most when you have something to lose, and Ole Miss peeps are still drying their eyes. The actual performance wasn't that bad. Three offensive line injuries is a lot to endure against Auburn's defensive front. And except for a two-play sequence, it's easy to imagine the Black Bears winning this game: tight end Evan Engram ran free in Auburn's backfield all night but dropped an imperfect Chad Kelly pass, then on the next play Auburn's Josh Holsey picked off a rare Kelly misfire to turn the game around. Ole Miss is 3-5, and trust me: you wouldn't want to play them.

BONUS: Texas A&M has the prettiest four receivers in college football, but Ole Miss has the most impressive depth chart. Every one of those guys can play. Freshman A.J. Brown is a true monster: watch out for him in coming years.

3. I hate to keep saying the same thing, but you gotta wonder how bad Georgia fans miss Mark Richt. Kirby Smart may build an even better program than Richt did, but there's no question Richt would have done better this year. Georgia is just bad, and that doesn't happen often.

4. My friend Duane McGee pointed out Missouri's embarrassing attendance: 50,234 is the Kittens' lowest home conference attendance since 2005. And since they play in a big place, it looked a lot worse than that. Here are two other things that look bad. Mizzou wasn't seriously competitive against Kentucky. Kentucky! And Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible: the one they're counting on is Mizzou.

5.  Mississippi State thrilled the home fans by giving up 41 points to Samford. Wow, they've fallen a long way post-Dak. But clearly it's not just Dak, and the question is whether Dan Mullen can pull things back together again in such a fierce division.

6. Arkansas desperately needed a bye so Bret Bielema could meet the QB Club ladies for his tee time. You've probably seen the commercial, but if you haven't, click the link!

7. Vanderbilt got a bye before a visit to (gasp) Auburn. Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible; Auburn is playing for an SEC championship. The other games are Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Better hope the Rebs or Vols are demoralized, which is a possibility. Vandy can frustrate Auburn, but Auburn's defense is just too much.

8. Having lost to Bama, Texas A&M now feels no pressure. In fact, they could easily go 11-1 without really accomplishing much. (Ole Miss and LSU lie ahead.) Pounding New Mexico State means nothing. So the Aggies are happy in their mediocrity.

9. South Carolina somehow beat Tennessee at home, and they showed some guts in doing it. They also have a freshman QB who looks like a player. If that's the case, Will Muschamp will build a stout defense, and the Gamecocks will once again become inconvenient. That might happen in Jake Bentley's junior year. The Cocks are happy today.

10. Florida beat Georgia, proving nothing but benefiting from Tennessee's shocking fall. Now the Gators have a challenge. We've said all along they're not very good, and there's no evidence to contradict us. The Gators have already beaten Kentucky, so they can clinch things by beating two of Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU. Can they do it? I see two losses there.

11 & 12. LSU and Alabama show respect for one another by scheduling a bye week prior to their matchup. Bama is enjoying the bliss of superiority, while LSU can sniff redemption. Having gotten Les Miles fired, the Bengal Cats are fired up. They don't have enough to handle the Tide, but who knows in this series?

13. Auburn is giddy. A win before the second largest crowd in Ole Miss history is nothing to sneeze at, and Auburn overcame withering fire from the Rebs' Chad Kelly. If you really watch Auburn, it's the true freshmen that have your eyes bugging out: Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown on the defensive line and three deadly wide receivers, not to mention redshirt freshman Darius Slayton. Auburn is heavily favored to show up in Tuscaloosa 9-2, beginning to attract playoff talk. Obviously, Bama is better than Auburn, but that guarantees nothing. House money, that's what Auburn's playing with. So long as they don't slip up.

BONUS: QB Sean White is one tough hombre. He's leading the SEC in passing efficiency, but that's because Auburn's scheme protects him. I'd like to see him improve his focus and footwork, as he can be inaccurate when Auburn needs consistency. But let's pat this guy on the back: winning Auburn's QB race was sort of like surviving Russian roulette, only to fight at Austerlitz. Yet White has overcome.

14. Kentucky is the happiest of all. The Cats have beaten absolutely no one: Southern Miss is their only victim with a winning record. They need to beat Georgia (here's saying they will) and Tennessee (uh-oh), then watch Florida collapse, and they win their first SEC East title. And play Alabama again. Highly unlikely, but let's pause and collect ourselves: it's Week 10, and Kentucky could win its division. Early on, it looked like Mark Stoops would be fired at season's end. That won't happen, Kentucky is going bowling, but don't be fooled. This is not a good team. According to Sagarin's computers, Kentucky is the nation's 67th best team. It's that sad in the East, folks.

No comments:

Post a Comment