Week 10 in the SEC Vale of Tears: Smokey's Sniffles and Magnolia Misery

If you're tempted to think of SEC football players as simple hired hands, consider this photo taken by Auburn offensive guard Alex Kozan upon returning to campus after Saturday night's win over Ole Miss.

The state of Mississippi is feeling some hurt right now, and outsiders will need an explanation. Traditionally, Alabama and Auburn dominate the Mississippi schools, but both Ole Miss and State have been punching back lately. Ole Miss won the state of Alabama last year, you know. Apart from tradition, there's no reason for Ole Miss to lag behind the Alabama programs. (State, being both small and in the SEC's worst college town, has a steeper hill to climb.) Ole Miss was primed to go big this year, but disappointing losses against great teams, a spate of injuries, and the specter of NCAA sanctions all have the Rebs feeling like their progress is threatened. That an Auburn player like Kozan is feeling emotional after winning in Oxford tells you how far Hugh Freeze has brought Ole Miss.

1. Stewart Mandel tweeted the possibility that Alabama broke Tennessee. I'm not so sure that's the case; the Vale has been skeptical of the Vols all along. But there's no question which mascot is howling at the moon the saddest these days. All Tennessee had to do was beat inferior teams and let Florida lose to LSU. I don't know what's wrong with Tennessee, but something clearly is.

News flash: Jalen Hurd has left the Tennessee program and intends to transfer. This is 14 players recruited in 2014 who have left the program. So yeah. Something ain't right.

2. Remember, you cry most when you have something to lose, and Ole Miss peeps are still drying their eyes. The actual performance wasn't that bad. Three offensive line injuries is a lot to endure against Auburn's defensive front. And except for a two-play sequence, it's easy to imagine the Black Bears winning this game: tight end Evan Engram ran free in Auburn's backfield all night but dropped an imperfect Chad Kelly pass, then on the next play Auburn's Josh Holsey picked off a rare Kelly misfire to turn the game around. Ole Miss is 3-5, and trust me: you wouldn't want to play them.

BONUS: Texas A&M has the prettiest four receivers in college football, but Ole Miss has the most impressive depth chart. Every one of those guys can play. Freshman A.J. Brown is a true monster: watch out for him in coming years.

3. I hate to keep saying the same thing, but you gotta wonder how bad Georgia fans miss Mark Richt. Kirby Smart may build an even better program than Richt did, but there's no question Richt would have done better this year. Georgia is just bad, and that doesn't happen often.

4. My friend Duane McGee pointed out Missouri's embarrassing attendance: 50,234 is the Kittens' lowest home conference attendance since 2005. And since they play in a big place, it looked a lot worse than that. Here are two other things that look bad. Mizzou wasn't seriously competitive against Kentucky. Kentucky! And Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible: the one they're counting on is Mizzou.

5.  Mississippi State thrilled the home fans by giving up 41 points to Samford. Wow, they've fallen a long way post-Dak. But clearly it's not just Dak, and the question is whether Dan Mullen can pull things back together again in such a fierce division.

6. Arkansas desperately needed a bye so Bret Bielema could meet the QB Club ladies for his tee time. You've probably seen the commercial, but if you haven't, click the link!

7. Vanderbilt got a bye before a visit to (gasp) Auburn. Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible; Auburn is playing for an SEC championship. The other games are Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Better hope the Rebs or Vols are demoralized, which is a possibility. Vandy can frustrate Auburn, but Auburn's defense is just too much.

8. Having lost to Bama, Texas A&M now feels no pressure. In fact, they could easily go 11-1 without really accomplishing much. (Ole Miss and LSU lie ahead.) Pounding New Mexico State means nothing. So the Aggies are happy in their mediocrity.

9. South Carolina somehow beat Tennessee at home, and they showed some guts in doing it. They also have a freshman QB who looks like a player. If that's the case, Will Muschamp will build a stout defense, and the Gamecocks will once again become inconvenient. That might happen in Jake Bentley's junior year. The Cocks are happy today.

10. Florida beat Georgia, proving nothing but benefiting from Tennessee's shocking fall. Now the Gators have a challenge. We've said all along they're not very good, and there's no evidence to contradict us. The Gators have already beaten Kentucky, so they can clinch things by beating two of Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU. Can they do it? I see two losses there.

11 & 12. LSU and Alabama show respect for one another by scheduling a bye week prior to their matchup. Bama is enjoying the bliss of superiority, while LSU can sniff redemption. Having gotten Les Miles fired, the Bengal Cats are fired up. They don't have enough to handle the Tide, but who knows in this series?

13. Auburn is giddy. A win before the second largest crowd in Ole Miss history is nothing to sneeze at, and Auburn overcame withering fire from the Rebs' Chad Kelly. If you really watch Auburn, it's the true freshmen that have your eyes bugging out: Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown on the defensive line and three deadly wide receivers, not to mention redshirt freshman Darius Slayton. Auburn is heavily favored to show up in Tuscaloosa 9-2, beginning to attract playoff talk. Obviously, Bama is better than Auburn, but that guarantees nothing. House money, that's what Auburn's playing with. So long as they don't slip up.

BONUS: QB Sean White is one tough hombre. He's leading the SEC in passing efficiency, but that's because Auburn's scheme protects him. I'd like to see him improve his focus and footwork, as he can be inaccurate when Auburn needs consistency. But let's pat this guy on the back: winning Auburn's QB race was sort of like surviving Russian roulette, only to fight at Austerlitz. Yet White has overcome.

14. Kentucky is the happiest of all. The Cats have beaten absolutely no one: Southern Miss is their only victim with a winning record. They need to beat Georgia (here's saying they will) and Tennessee (uh-oh), then watch Florida collapse, and they win their first SEC East title. And play Alabama again. Highly unlikely, but let's pause and collect ourselves: it's Week 10, and Kentucky could win its division. Early on, it looked like Mark Stoops would be fired at season's end. That won't happen, Kentucky is going bowling, but don't be fooled. This is not a good team. According to Sagarin's computers, Kentucky is the nation's 67th best team. It's that sad in the East, folks.

Week 9 in This Vale of Tears

Experienced readers will notice that we've changed our name from The SEC Misery Index to This Vale of Tears. Last week a Google search revealed that "Misery Index" had already been done. We were disappointed, but now we celebrate this opportunity. For is not misery a spiritual condition? Does it not cry for redemption, however ephemeral?

I mean, will Arkansas fans ever taste final redemption? I don't think so. But they want it. So. Very. Badly.

We've reached the point in the season at which disillusionment has set in far more broadly than in Arkansas. As Siddhartha knew, deep pain comes from expectations. Once those expectations are done away with -- are you hearing this, Starkville and both Columbias? -- pain diminishes in its acuity. Oxford and College Station, comfort awaits, for now you know your place.

We've also learned to calibrate our expectations for big games. SEC football is so intense that we have to allow for letdowns. How to recognize a letdown? Let us consider three factors.

1. You just played an intense game that meant a lot to you.
2. It was on the road.
3. You won.

Any of these three factors predicts a letdown. Against quality opposition, the combination is deadly. Ironically, winning seems to be more costly than losing. Only Alabama can rise above it. Look for the Pattern below.

So in order of pain, our rankings.

1. Arkansas fans, don't let yourselves dwell in self-pity. It's not as bad as it looks. At least, it doesn't have to be. Yes, you gave up 543 rushing yards (!!!) to a mediocre offense that lacked its starting running back. Yes, we sensed you were overrated. But you're also a victim of the Pattern, having played Alabama and Ole Miss (albeit, both at home) before visiting Auburn. And you beat Ole Miss, the kiss of death. Auburn surely exposed weaknesses on both lines, but your QB remains splendid and courageous. You're not that bad.

2. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is feeling a world of hurt. No one was surprised by the quick 10-0 lead. But then Leonard Fournette. Dear Lord. Ole Miss is too good on defense, too tough, too well disciplined to fall apart like that. And fall apart, it did. Again, the Rebs succumbed to the Pattern. And momentum is crashing in. Auburn is next, and although Mississippi is the better team, Auburn is gonna beat Mississippi in Oxford. Just too much disappointment.

3.  Only because it still held some tatters of hope does Mississippi State outrank Mizzou and Carolina. It's clear that Kentucky is only modestly bad. It's also true that the Cats are more formidable at home than on the road. But now State faces the worst of dilemmas. The program is moving backwards, a 3-9 season seems very, very likely, and Dan Mullen is the best coach the Bullies have ever had. They're proud in Starkville, and falling behind Arkansas and Ole Miss is the kiss of death for a coach. I recommend hanging in one more year.

4. Missouri, what the actual heck? We briefly thought you might just be bad rather than putrid. And then MTSU hangs 34 points on you -- in the first half. You come back and take the lead, then you find yourself behind by 10 in the fourth quarter. Just too much. This is a special level of miserable.

5. Everybody, congratulate South Carolina on its heroic win against UMass, the current number 141 in the Sagarin ratings! One. Four. One. Yes, the Gamecocks built a respectable 34-14 lead before hanging on by their little chicken toes. But someone named Marquis Young rushed for 123 yards against Carolina, and we
just
don't
know
what to say.

6-7. Florida and Georgia didn't play, as is customary before the Cocktail Party. Florida is 5-1 on smoke and mirrors -- well, on the SEC East being awful -- and the Gators will finish with a nice record. For its part, Georgia is just not good. Look for a decisive Gator win next week -- decisive, but not a blowout.

8. You'd expect big tears from Texas A&M, but if you see any, they're fake. Deep in their hearts, Aggies fans knew they weren't in Alabama's class. The Aggies took a brief lead in the third quarter after Bama had squandered multiple opportunities, then the truth came to light. The Aggies just couldn't stop Alabama's running game. And while Trevor Knight is a dynamic QB, Bama's pass rush is just too, too much. Watch out: A&M is a very good team. They just ran into Bama. No shame there.

9. In the words of my high school coach, Buddy Moore, Vanderbilt fans don't know whether to wind their ass or scratch their watch. The Commodores have scratched their way to 4-4, with an outside chance of a bowl game. But let's face it: You should put away Tennessee State well before the fourth quarter, and that bowl game requires beating Auburn, Mississippi, or Tennessee in addition to Missouri. In the end, Vandy peeps will feel good at 5-7, with happy momentum and the knowledge that they really "should" have beaten Carolina.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE: Vandy plays Auburn next week. I'm an alum of both Vandy (PhD, 1996) and the Pat Dye Football Camp (1981). I always root for the team that has the most to gain. Last time, it was Vandy. It might look like I should choose Vandy this time, but here's my reasoning. Vandy is not much happier at 5-7 than at 6-6 plus a bowl game. But Auburn is really building something that could grow to be special. So I'll root for Auburn with a divided heart. Auburn is just too much for Vandy. Vandy can't score on Auburn, but Auburn shouldn't blow them out. So long as Vandy doesn't blow up with turnovers, it'll be a decisive but respectable Auburn win.

10. That was a really nice win for Kentucky. We admit we'd written off the Cats as a disaster. And really they are. We just had no idea how weak the East would be. They're also destined for a bowl game, with games against Missouri and Georgia straight ahead. Win one of those and beat Peay (we still love saying that.), and a bowl it is. Stoops will keep his job, and maybe the Cats will go back to improving. But make no mistake: this year has been ugly. Lose to both Mizzou and Georgia, and there's a coaching change ahead.

11. Tennessee didn't play. Teams typically do poorly after playing Alabama, so they're happy with a bye week. And rooting against Florida every week, since a Gators loss will probably hand them the East and an invitation to lose spectacularly to Alabama again.

12. Auburn is very, very happy after its complete dismantling of Arkansas. But let's be cautious. The Bielemas ran into the Pattern, and they were just worn out. Some big plays early set the snowball rolling downhill, and -- to its credit -- Auburn just kept gathering rocks and snow. It's a very good thing Auburn has already faced LSU, a match parents should not show their children for its physicality. Now we can say this: Auburn can beat anyone it plays, but it has to keep improving, especially the passing game, and it has to play well. By the way, Auburn now ranks #7 in Sagarin. That's probably about right.

BONUS: Good signs for Auburn. It didn't need the rehabbing Kerryon Johnson against Arkansas, and it didn't overuse Kamryn Petway. They'll need both.

DOUBLE BONUS: Auburn doesn't enjoy Bama's spectacular depth on the defensive line, but it's not that far away. Three Tiger linemen will depart for the NFL this year. Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams are spectacular. But three more are emerging to be just as good: the spectacular Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown are true freshmen. But watch Byron Cowart! Two years removed from being the nation's #1 recruit, the defensive end hasn't done much yet. But Auburn's moving him inside to tackle, and he made a big impact against Arkansas, just dominating people. Watch out, people.

13. LSU loves beating Ole Miss. The Tigers have no true rival, so they settle for being hated on a lower level by everybody else. This whipping of the uppity Rebels (and don't you love the phrase, uppity Rebels?) showed that LSU is still LSU. Bama is next, and it's easy to forget: an LSU win likely puts the Tigers in the championship game! Don't count on it. Bama will win a close one against LSU. But keep that in mind.

14. Bama, yikes. Let's assume Bama was feeling the Pattern, coming off a road win against historic rival Tennessee. Only, the game wasn't close. Bama stumbled around for a half, then righted the ship. Never was there a question who had the better team. Once again, Bama scored a defensive touchdown. That's 10 games in a row with a non-offensive touchdown, an all-time record, and 12 such scores this season. And let's pause to grieve the loss of Eddie Jackson, an all-world recruit who found out he needed to improve at Alabama -- and who has improved greatly as a safety and punt returner to become an All-American. Three of those TDs are his.

BONUS: BAMA AND THE PLAYOFFS. Ohio State's loss last night doesn't diminish the Buckeyes' chances one bit, but it does remind us that every team is more likely to lose than to go undefeated. I expect Bama to make it all the way to the playoffs loss-free, but they do face both sets of resurgent Tigers. Bama's only apparently weakness is that Hurts isn't particularly awesome when things get sketchy around him. Bama knows what Ohio State just found out: a truly great team can lose. But gosh, Alabama has dominated most everybody they've seen. Even Ole Miss started out with a huge lead built on quirky plays but couldn't hold on.

THE VALE'S DELIVERER OF TEARS. Last week we singled out Vanderbilt's Zach Cunningham and called attention to Alabama's Reuben Foster as a case study in the Tide's depth. Confessionally, the Vale's favorite players are Auburn's twin defensive ends, Carl Lawson and Marlon Davidson, who play with true passion. But this week Alabama's Mack Wilson takes the cake for two devastating hits on kickoff returns.

Here's #1 on Speedy Noil, who somehow abides among the living.

Noil lost a tooth, as you can see here.

Wilson's second victim was Justin Evans, who apparently has entered the witness protection program. Or should. Immediately.

CBS debated whether these hits were legal. Look, a kickoff returner is a fast moving target. They're legal. And inspirational. All hail Mack Wilson.

The Week 8 Misery Index

This week's SEC Misery Index has to begin with a spectacular video: Vandy's great Zach Cunningham with the game-clinching stop against Georgia on 4th and 1. Be inspired.

Maybe you clicked the video. Watch again. Cunningham starts on the inside but works his way out to make the play on a sweep. He has tons of ability, but this play is about how badly he wanted it. Zach Cunningham with 19 tackles Saturday! He's now second in the nation in tackles for loss.

Last week's index was, well, too careful. We don't get much credit for recognizing that Tennessee was good but not good enough. We said, "Here’s my thought: Neither Tennessee nor A&M is all that great, and Bama is going to just drill the Vols." And we almost had the guts to call Vandy's upset of Georgia: "This team might be kinda good, it might be mediocre, or it might even be pretty bad. I’m leaning toward pretty bad, as Georgia really hasn’t accomplished anything meaningful this year. I’m not calling a Vandy upset, but this is the kind of situation…."

No more caution this week. We'll go down swinging.

1. Georgia. Now we know. We never should have been talking up Eason's legend, Uncle Verne. He'll do fine, but he's not ready yet. You have to wonder: Is anybody missing Mark Richt? Because Kirby inherited some talent, and it's not coming through.

2. Tennessee can go 6-0 in the SEC East, and probably will, but because they drew A&M and Bama in the West, they might not win their division. That's a shame. We could watch Bama pants them again. But Florida still faces its two West opponents, and one loss will send the Vols back to their public whuppin'. Count on it: Tennessee plays Alabama in the Championship Game, where things are almost as ugly the second time.

3. Ole Miss couldn't close out Arkansas, and that's miserable. All of their goals for the season are done. Let's see how they hold up. I still think they're an elite team, but they have some ugly matchups ahead.

4. Too bad, State. You did good against BYU on a tough road trip, but you couldn't finish it.

5. Mizzou, ouch. Just a reminder that the bottom of the conference is the bottom of the conference.

6. Carolina didn't play, and we're all happy.

7. Kentucky didn't play, either. Their path to a bowl is very skinny, and obviously they're not a good team. I've been saying Stoops can't survive, and I'll stick with that.

8. Auburn didn't play and faces Arkansas this week. This is a huge test for both teams. Here's guessing that Auburn's defense is too much for Arkansas, now that Auburn has figured out an offensive identity. It won't be as easy as the point spread suggests, but Arky had a huge win last week. Hard to do it twice....

9. Florida keeps beating bad teams. That's all you can really say about the Gators.

10. Tied 10-10 at halftime, LSU fans had to be concerned. Grieving Mike, they were all tied up with Southern Miss. Yeah, well. LSU is the SEC's mystery team at the moment. Immensely talented, now with a QB who can run their offense and a head coach who lets out the leash. And jeepers, look at their schedule: they host Ole Miss and Alabama before visiting Arkansas, then the Florida makeup is at home before a final visit to A&M. Without a doubt, LSU is the team who can mess up people's year. Count on it: LSU is gonna make a couple of teams cry.


11. Vandy is very, very happy. We've been saying all along that Vandy has an A-level defense and would be just fine with OK play at QB. It's still true, but now it's obvious. The Dores are also competitive on special teams. That's rare because special teams is where talent and depth are most apparent. Derek Mason may have saved his job with a clear sign of progress. He swears the offense looks good in practice. Maybe, just maybe, things will click. If so, Mason will build himself a program at Vandy. Wouldn't that be sweet?

12. A&M didn't play, as they rested up for Bama. Had Tennessee forced Bama to sweat, A&M might pose a threat. Count on it: Bama has way too much for the Aggies. A&M is especially strong at defensive end, but Bama has the talent and the schemes to neutralize that threat. A&M was the prettiest set of receivers you'll ever see, but their QB is a bit inconsistent in getting them the ball. The one thing A&M has that will annoy Alabama is that Knight has a way of breaking off nice runs on third down. But this one gets ugly pretty quick.

13. Arkansas is a bit of a mystery, too. They have a way of biting really good teams, as Ole Miss found out (again) Saturday night. And they can be exposed: just not as physical as they used to be. Auburn, Florida, and LSU await. How much bacon can the Hogs deliver?

14. Alabama loves beating Tennessee. When their fans are smart, and it ain't often, they tweak Auburn folk by saying Tennessee's the bigger rivalry. Could you tell how much Alabama loves beating Tennessee?

BONUS: This is no scoop exactly, but when you have the ball, Alabama is more likely to score than you are. Bama scored two more non-offensive touchdowns Saturday: an interception and a punt return. That's 11 for the year. Take away the Ole Miss game and all of Bama's offensive scores, and Alabama has outscored its opponents for the season. I have no idea what the record is, but Alabama has scored more on D and special teams than South Carolina has scored, total.

DOUBLE BAMA BONUS: If you really want to appreciate the quality of Alabama's program, check out #10, linebacker Reuben Foster. Playing for Auburn High School, he was one of the most elite recruits in the country. Foster committed to play for Auburn University, even getting a big tattoo to show it. But at the last minute, he turned traitor and signed with Alabama. And he paid the price. He was a special teams terror as a freshman, a dangerous member of the rotation as a sophomore, second fiddle to Reggie Ragland as a junior, and now a sure-fire first round pick in the NFL draft. Every other Bama linebacker is headed for the NFL too. Their talent level is magnificent, so is their depth, and the coaching is obvious when you watch them play. Reuben Foster, everybody.