Monday, December 5, 2016

Cry Me a River after the Season's Done

It's all over but the shoutin' with respect to the 2016 SEC season. I've done a little homework, and for the first time in a very long time I think we all have some crying to do together. Here's why: it seems pretty clear the SEC is not the nation's best conference this year.

I know, I know. It just don't make sense. Just because Bama is so much better than Everybody Else, don't mean Everybody Else is inferior to a bunch of pasty-faced Yankees from the B1G. Logically, that's true. But it just don't add up to fact.

The gap between the SEC and the B1G isn't all that large. But a good look at key wins and losses from each conference settles things. The B1G has more impressive wins and fewer hurtful loses. And Rivalry Week -- what the hell, Georgia? -- told the tale.


There it is. The top of the B1G is clearly better than the top of the SEC. Just as clearly, the B1G's four weakest teams are inferior to anyone in the SEC. From top to bottom, however, it's quite close -- but the gap is visible to the nekkid eye.

Several SEC programs have work to do. And that's what we're talkin' about this week.

1. Ole Miss has to be home to the SEC's saddest fans.The Rebels started the season with great expectations. They tore off to a big lead against highly ranked Florida State in the season opener, only to watch that lead fall apart. Another big lead against Alabama -- 24-3 against Bama! -- melted away. And a promising season devolved into 5-7 and an Egg Bowl loss. Ole Miss now has a terrific talent base, but no one is really sure how the NCAA will come down on Coach Freeze and his staff. Years from now, will we see the picture of Laremy Tunsil and his gas mask as the beginning of the end?



2. Missouri fans proved how sad they are by staying away in droves. Why? Because it's not clear where hope comes from. Mizzou shocked the SEC by winning the East in its first two seasons. But 2015 brought lots of pressure upon the university and the football program, and things began to fall apart. New coach Barry Odom gave the Tigers some moments, not least of them being the season-ending conquest of Arkansas at home. Mizzou developed a potent offense, and QB Drew Lock has two seasons remaining. Things might improve. But this season saw lots of empty seats in Columbia, recruiting there is a tough gig, and everybody else is a step ahead.

3. Here's a weird thought. Today's SEC players don't remember when Tennessee football was a Thing. We're talking about Peyton Manning and Tee Martin and a national championship, right? Like when Tennessee-Florida was the conference's real glamor matchup. Well, this was supposed to be the Vols' year. Butch Jones had recruited like a demon, and the Vols were destined to win the East. But a 5-0 start crashed with a tough loss to A&M, followed by getting smashed by Bama and upset by -- uh-oh -- South Carolina. The Vols righted the ship, but not in time to keep Florida from winning the division. A collapse against Vandy in the season finale left Smokey howling at the moon and Vols fans very, very restless. What should we expect when a trip to the Sugar Bowl distills itself into a visit to the Music City? I happen to believe in Butch Jones, but Jalen Hurd's midseason defection leaves people wondering if the program is really together. This 8-4 season was bitterly disappointing, and folks are concerned. By the way, Tennessee loses some big time talent this year too.

4. It may not be fair to put Mississippi State this high. The SEC West is without a doubt college football's toughest division, and State managed to win the Egg Bowl. State also lost to South Alabama. More importantly, too often the Bullies were flat-out bullied. Dan Mullen is a terrific coach, and Nick Fitzgerald looks like the perfect QB for the Mullen system. But Mississippi State expects bowl games even in down years, and this team lacked the usual bite. Stay tuned.

5. Everybody knew South Carolina was way down this season, and their expectations were largely confirmed. So a bowl game is a happy surprise, as is the performance of freshman QB Jake Bentley. (Strong freshman QBs has been a theme of this whole season.) The better sign is the Gamecock's pretty tough defense, which will only improve with fresh infusions of talent. Coach Will Muschamp will see to that. Muschamp's problem at Florida was that he never developed the offense to back up those awesome defenses -- and recruiting was far easier in Gainesville. Carolina will be competitive again, probably in 2018. Whether they'll play for championships is another question.

6. We keep saying it, but Georgia fired Mark Richt to get Kirby Smart, and what we have here is a situation. True freshman QB Jacob Eason looks like Matthew Stafford redux, but since when does Georgia go 7-5? And they were lucky to get there, what with losses to Mizzou, Vandy, and Kentucky. Hearing that, Vince Dooley just threw up on UGA II. Transition is hard, and maybe Smart has a long-term plan, but Georgia fans know two words: Ray Goff. It's easier to win at UGA than at most other places, but there's no entitlement in football. We'll see.

7. Arkansas fans have to feel like they experienced a blown opportunity. The Hogs would bully the weak, then get stampeded by the strong. The 56-3 loss to Auburn looked catastrophic, then after a bye week the Hogs beat Florida, got trampled by LSU, beat State, and -- yikes -- lost to Missouri. QB Austin Allen is my favorite of the new crop of SEC quarterbacks, reliable and tough. But Arkansas has lost its reputation for team toughness for the time being.

8. Pretty much the same in College Station, where Texas A&M experienced fleeting glory before its encounter with Alabama. Still another late-season collapse leaves Reveille panting for breath -- and Kevin Sumlin looking for his asbestos underwear. This time a raft of spectacular talent flees Southeast Texas for the NFL. A&M has all kinds of recruiting advantages, but next season will be critical. Another 3-4 finish won't cut it.

9. LSU fans may not know how to feel. That opening loss to Wisconsin no longer looks so ugly. The Badgers are badass. However, the offense's anemic performance began choking the air out of the Les Miles era, an ineptitude that snuffed out all life with the Auburn loss. Ed Orgeron clearly brought improvement, as he has when he's been an interim. But is he a program leader? LSU fans know their team sparkles with talent -- almost Alabama-level talent. With the right leadership, we're talking more national championships. Do they have the right leadership?

10. Florida won the East, which granted them the opportunity to face national humiliation at the hands of Alabama. Thing is, people don't even judge you for that anymore. But humiliation to Florida State the week before? Well, we all know Florida ain't that good yet. We still don't know if offensive genius Jim McElwain has the answer in Gainesville. But Florida should never struggle to beat Vandy or get blown out by anybody. We'll see.

11. If they'd tell the truth, and they never do, Auburn people would admit they're a little bit relieved and a lot worried. The opening loss to Clemson showed a first-class defense. Brilliant young talent emerged throughout the season. But QB play was inconsistent, even with Sean White, and abysmal without him. Depth problems at both QB and running back pose big challenges for recruiting and player development. And the offensive play calling often verged on the embarrassing. Looking to 2017, Auburn has a defense other teams will envy, a dazzling set of young receivers, a developing offensive line, and a couple of questions. Watch for big news on the transfer market and maybe a big change on the coaching staff.

12. This is tough, but I'm putting Vanderbilt above Kentucky. In a word, Vandy fans are giddy. Early in the season we knew the Dores had a legitimate SEC defense and a respectable running game. But offensive helplessness, especially in QB and receiver play, put way too much pressure on the rest of the team, and it looked like another abysmal year under Derek Mason. Late, and I mean late, in the season, QB Kyle Shurmur figured it out, and the receivers played a spectacular game in beating Tennessee. Looking ahead, Vandy fans are feeling lots of seasons between 5-7 and 8-4 under Mason, and that's genuinely exciting. 6-6 and a bowl game is just dandy.

13. But give Kentucky big-time credit. A season that started like a total loss, including defeat to Southern Mississippi, a blowout at the hands of Florida, and yielding 42 points to New Mexico State wound up with the Cats shocking Louisville. Mark Stoops, whom I proclaimed left for dead, did a magnificent coaching job. I still worry that the natural order of things in the East will prove just too much for Kentucky, but none of the traditional powers is operating at top efficiency. We'll see.

14. Alabama has reached a status pretty much unseen since the NCAA started limiting scholarship numbers. Maybe the great Miami teams placed similar levels of talent on the field. But it's not just talent. If Buddhists were violent, you could say Bama plays like killer monks: calm, calm, calm, but extremely violent. The emergence of Jalen Hurts -- not my favorite among the freshman QBs but clearly the best so far -- is just bad news for everybody. And think of the talent Bama lost to injury during the season, and how they overcame it. Bama is mortal. They can lose. But they have reached football enlightenment, whatever that means. Oh, and 14 non-offensive touchdowns this season. That's more than 1 non-offensive touchdown per game. Just think about that.

We don't really do awards around here, but we do share some love, along with some pre-bowl impressions.

Apart from the Bama defense, freshman QBs may represent the SEC's biggest story. Promising signs emerged at Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia, and South Carolina. Georgia's Jacob Eason and Ole Miss' Shea Patterson look like the best long-term bets. Alabama's Jalen Hurts was a legit Heisman contender and is already a star. But watch out for State's Nick Fitzgerald, who is the model Dan Mullen quarterback. Think Tim Tebow and Dak Prescott, and you have the idea.


LSU's Leonard Fournette was supposed to be the SEC's most dominant player. Injury hampered his season. But even with #7 at full speed, I doubt anyone could top Alabama DE Jonathan Allen, who just won the Nagurski Award for the nation's most outstanding defensive player. I've been showing Allen clips all year. His least willing victim this week was the poor Florida safety he met while blocking as a fullback on the goal line. Enjoy some season highlights.


Allen is the clear leader among a pack of possible first round defensive ends. A&M's Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, LSU's Arden Key, Auburn's Carl Lawson, and Tennessee's Derek Barnett are all terrifying, but that's not counting Mississippi's Marquis Haynes, Mizzou's Charles Harris, and others we're probably neglecting. People complain that SEC offenses aren't dynamic. There's your answer.

Remarkably, the SEC's most explosive player was Fournette's backup. To date, Derrius Guice has already rushed for 1249 yards -- as a backup, remember -- averaging 8.0 yards per carry. In a run-dominated offense, that's insane. Guice has scored as many touchdowns as have the Bama defense and special teams. Just for perspective.

My favorite player this year has to be Vandy's stellar linebacker Zach Cunningham. He's not the best in the conference -- Bama's Reuben Foster just won the Butkus Award. He may even stay another season, as he needs to build his body some more. But who can forget the heroism he showed on 4th & 1 against Georgia. Zach Cunningham is a Natural Born Killer.


So maybe that wasn't helpful, but Zach Cunningham is the heart of Vandy's resurgence.

Not that I'd rate Cunningham above my true man crush, Auburn's Carl Lawson. Lawson has overcome two tough injuries to return to the promise he showed as a freshman. He is just a menace; even more important, Lawson has provided leadership in Auburn's toughest moments. Class guy.


The neat thing is, Lawson has provided a wonderful role model for his bookend, true freshman Marlon Davidson. I don't know another way to say it, but Davidson loves getting after your ass. He plays 100% 100% of the time, and his joy is obvious. This baby freshman had 6 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, and he was an absolute force. Here he is, having a little fun at Ole Miss' expense.


Well, I'm a homer, and I have to admit that my heart's been stolen by the heroic play of Kamryn Pettway. If he doesn't emerge, I don't think Auburn does either. In consecutive weeks of Auburn's six-game winning streak, Pettway carried the ball 39, 27, 30, and 25 times. I'm fully convinced his injury cost Auburn the Georgia game. Georgia is too. Yeah, and his fewest yards in that stretch? 169. Kam Pettway is a man. Worth the 5 second ad delay.


Obviously, I have two set of glasses, one orange and blue and the other black and gold. But the year's true story has to be the Alabama defense. I've never seen anything like it. My fiancee Jennifer gets bored watching them -- and she loves football. My heart goes out to Eddie Jackson and Shaun Dion Hamilton, two stellar players who will miss the playoffs due to injury. Of course, Bama has replacements who will be All-Americans in their own right. Rashaan Evans already looks the part. Anyway, here are the first 9 non-offensive touchdowns by the Crimson Tide. I mean, sheesh. 14.



No comments:

Post a Comment