Cry Me a River after the Season's Done

It's all over but the shoutin' with respect to the 2016 SEC season. I've done a little homework, and for the first time in a very long time I think we all have some crying to do together. Here's why: it seems pretty clear the SEC is not the nation's best conference this year.

I know, I know. It just don't make sense. Just because Bama is so much better than Everybody Else, don't mean Everybody Else is inferior to a bunch of pasty-faced Yankees from the B1G. Logically, that's true. But it just don't add up to fact.

The gap between the SEC and the B1G isn't all that large. But a good look at key wins and losses from each conference settles things. The B1G has more impressive wins and fewer hurtful loses. And Rivalry Week -- what the hell, Georgia? -- told the tale.

There it is. The top of the B1G is clearly better than the top of the SEC. Just as clearly, the B1G's four weakest teams are inferior to anyone in the SEC. From top to bottom, however, it's quite close -- but the gap is visible to the nekkid eye.

Several SEC programs have work to do. And that's what we're talkin' about this week.

1. Ole Miss has to be home to the SEC's saddest fans.The Rebels started the season with great expectations. They tore off to a big lead against highly ranked Florida State in the season opener, only to watch that lead fall apart. Another big lead against Alabama -- 24-3 against Bama! -- melted away. And a promising season devolved into 5-7 and an Egg Bowl loss. Ole Miss now has a terrific talent base, but no one is really sure how the NCAA will come down on Coach Freeze and his staff. Years from now, will we see the picture of Laremy Tunsil and his gas mask as the beginning of the end?

2. Missouri fans proved how sad they are by staying away in droves. Why? Because it's not clear where hope comes from. Mizzou shocked the SEC by winning the East in its first two seasons. But 2015 brought lots of pressure upon the university and the football program, and things began to fall apart. New coach Barry Odom gave the Tigers some moments, not least of them being the season-ending conquest of Arkansas at home. Mizzou developed a potent offense, and QB Drew Lock has two seasons remaining. Things might improve. But this season saw lots of empty seats in Columbia, recruiting there is a tough gig, and everybody else is a step ahead.

3. Here's a weird thought. Today's SEC players don't remember when Tennessee football was a Thing. We're talking about Peyton Manning and Tee Martin and a national championship, right? Like when Tennessee-Florida was the conference's real glamor matchup. Well, this was supposed to be the Vols' year. Butch Jones had recruited like a demon, and the Vols were destined to win the East. But a 5-0 start crashed with a tough loss to A&M, followed by getting smashed by Bama and upset by -- uh-oh -- South Carolina. The Vols righted the ship, but not in time to keep Florida from winning the division. A collapse against Vandy in the season finale left Smokey howling at the moon and Vols fans very, very restless. What should we expect when a trip to the Sugar Bowl distills itself into a visit to the Music City? I happen to believe in Butch Jones, but Jalen Hurd's midseason defection leaves people wondering if the program is really together. This 8-4 season was bitterly disappointing, and folks are concerned. By the way, Tennessee loses some big time talent this year too.

4. It may not be fair to put Mississippi State this high. The SEC West is without a doubt college football's toughest division, and State managed to win the Egg Bowl. State also lost to South Alabama. More importantly, too often the Bullies were flat-out bullied. Dan Mullen is a terrific coach, and Nick Fitzgerald looks like the perfect QB for the Mullen system. But Mississippi State expects bowl games even in down years, and this team lacked the usual bite. Stay tuned.

5. Everybody knew South Carolina was way down this season, and their expectations were largely confirmed. So a bowl game is a happy surprise, as is the performance of freshman QB Jake Bentley. (Strong freshman QBs has been a theme of this whole season.) The better sign is the Gamecock's pretty tough defense, which will only improve with fresh infusions of talent. Coach Will Muschamp will see to that. Muschamp's problem at Florida was that he never developed the offense to back up those awesome defenses -- and recruiting was far easier in Gainesville. Carolina will be competitive again, probably in 2018. Whether they'll play for championships is another question.

6. We keep saying it, but Georgia fired Mark Richt to get Kirby Smart, and what we have here is a situation. True freshman QB Jacob Eason looks like Matthew Stafford redux, but since when does Georgia go 7-5? And they were lucky to get there, what with losses to Mizzou, Vandy, and Kentucky. Hearing that, Vince Dooley just threw up on UGA II. Transition is hard, and maybe Smart has a long-term plan, but Georgia fans know two words: Ray Goff. It's easier to win at UGA than at most other places, but there's no entitlement in football. We'll see.

7. Arkansas fans have to feel like they experienced a blown opportunity. The Hogs would bully the weak, then get stampeded by the strong. The 56-3 loss to Auburn looked catastrophic, then after a bye week the Hogs beat Florida, got trampled by LSU, beat State, and -- yikes -- lost to Missouri. QB Austin Allen is my favorite of the new crop of SEC quarterbacks, reliable and tough. But Arkansas has lost its reputation for team toughness for the time being.

8. Pretty much the same in College Station, where Texas A&M experienced fleeting glory before its encounter with Alabama. Still another late-season collapse leaves Reveille panting for breath -- and Kevin Sumlin looking for his asbestos underwear. This time a raft of spectacular talent flees Southeast Texas for the NFL. A&M has all kinds of recruiting advantages, but next season will be critical. Another 3-4 finish won't cut it.

9. LSU fans may not know how to feel. That opening loss to Wisconsin no longer looks so ugly. The Badgers are badass. However, the offense's anemic performance began choking the air out of the Les Miles era, an ineptitude that snuffed out all life with the Auburn loss. Ed Orgeron clearly brought improvement, as he has when he's been an interim. But is he a program leader? LSU fans know their team sparkles with talent -- almost Alabama-level talent. With the right leadership, we're talking more national championships. Do they have the right leadership?

10. Florida won the East, which granted them the opportunity to face national humiliation at the hands of Alabama. Thing is, people don't even judge you for that anymore. But humiliation to Florida State the week before? Well, we all know Florida ain't that good yet. We still don't know if offensive genius Jim McElwain has the answer in Gainesville. But Florida should never struggle to beat Vandy or get blown out by anybody. We'll see.

11. If they'd tell the truth, and they never do, Auburn people would admit they're a little bit relieved and a lot worried. The opening loss to Clemson showed a first-class defense. Brilliant young talent emerged throughout the season. But QB play was inconsistent, even with Sean White, and abysmal without him. Depth problems at both QB and running back pose big challenges for recruiting and player development. And the offensive play calling often verged on the embarrassing. Looking to 2017, Auburn has a defense other teams will envy, a dazzling set of young receivers, a developing offensive line, and a couple of questions. Watch for big news on the transfer market and maybe a big change on the coaching staff.

12. This is tough, but I'm putting Vanderbilt above Kentucky. In a word, Vandy fans are giddy. Early in the season we knew the Dores had a legitimate SEC defense and a respectable running game. But offensive helplessness, especially in QB and receiver play, put way too much pressure on the rest of the team, and it looked like another abysmal year under Derek Mason. Late, and I mean late, in the season, QB Kyle Shurmur figured it out, and the receivers played a spectacular game in beating Tennessee. Looking ahead, Vandy fans are feeling lots of seasons between 5-7 and 8-4 under Mason, and that's genuinely exciting. 6-6 and a bowl game is just dandy.

13. But give Kentucky big-time credit. A season that started like a total loss, including defeat to Southern Mississippi, a blowout at the hands of Florida, and yielding 42 points to New Mexico State wound up with the Cats shocking Louisville. Mark Stoops, whom I proclaimed left for dead, did a magnificent coaching job. I still worry that the natural order of things in the East will prove just too much for Kentucky, but none of the traditional powers is operating at top efficiency. We'll see.

14. Alabama has reached a status pretty much unseen since the NCAA started limiting scholarship numbers. Maybe the great Miami teams placed similar levels of talent on the field. But it's not just talent. If Buddhists were violent, you could say Bama plays like killer monks: calm, calm, calm, but extremely violent. The emergence of Jalen Hurts -- not my favorite among the freshman QBs but clearly the best so far -- is just bad news for everybody. And think of the talent Bama lost to injury during the season, and how they overcame it. Bama is mortal. They can lose. But they have reached football enlightenment, whatever that means. Oh, and 14 non-offensive touchdowns this season. That's more than 1 non-offensive touchdown per game. Just think about that.

We don't really do awards around here, but we do share some love, along with some pre-bowl impressions.

Apart from the Bama defense, freshman QBs may represent the SEC's biggest story. Promising signs emerged at Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia, and South Carolina. Georgia's Jacob Eason and Ole Miss' Shea Patterson look like the best long-term bets. Alabama's Jalen Hurts was a legit Heisman contender and is already a star. But watch out for State's Nick Fitzgerald, who is the model Dan Mullen quarterback. Think Tim Tebow and Dak Prescott, and you have the idea.

LSU's Leonard Fournette was supposed to be the SEC's most dominant player. Injury hampered his season. But even with #7 at full speed, I doubt anyone could top Alabama DE Jonathan Allen, who just won the Nagurski Award for the nation's most outstanding defensive player. I've been showing Allen clips all year. His least willing victim this week was the poor Florida safety he met while blocking as a fullback on the goal line. Enjoy some season highlights.

Allen is the clear leader among a pack of possible first round defensive ends. A&M's Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, LSU's Arden Key, Auburn's Carl Lawson, and Tennessee's Derek Barnett are all terrifying, but that's not counting Mississippi's Marquis Haynes, Mizzou's Charles Harris, and others we're probably neglecting. People complain that SEC offenses aren't dynamic. There's your answer.

Remarkably, the SEC's most explosive player was Fournette's backup. To date, Derrius Guice has already rushed for 1249 yards -- as a backup, remember -- averaging 8.0 yards per carry. In a run-dominated offense, that's insane. Guice has scored as many touchdowns as have the Bama defense and special teams. Just for perspective.

My favorite player this year has to be Vandy's stellar linebacker Zach Cunningham. He's not the best in the conference -- Bama's Reuben Foster just won the Butkus Award. He may even stay another season, as he needs to build his body some more. But who can forget the heroism he showed on 4th & 1 against Georgia. Zach Cunningham is a Natural Born Killer.

So maybe that wasn't helpful, but Zach Cunningham is the heart of Vandy's resurgence.

Not that I'd rate Cunningham above my true man crush, Auburn's Carl Lawson. Lawson has overcome two tough injuries to return to the promise he showed as a freshman. He is just a menace; even more important, Lawson has provided leadership in Auburn's toughest moments. Class guy.

The neat thing is, Lawson has provided a wonderful role model for his bookend, true freshman Marlon Davidson. I don't know another way to say it, but Davidson loves getting after your ass. He plays 100% 100% of the time, and his joy is obvious. This baby freshman had 6 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, and he was an absolute force. Here he is, having a little fun at Ole Miss' expense.

Well, I'm a homer, and I have to admit that my heart's been stolen by the heroic play of Kamryn Pettway. If he doesn't emerge, I don't think Auburn does either. In consecutive weeks of Auburn's six-game winning streak, Pettway carried the ball 39, 27, 30, and 25 times. I'm fully convinced his injury cost Auburn the Georgia game. Georgia is too. Yeah, and his fewest yards in that stretch? 169. Kam Pettway is a man. Worth the 5 second ad delay.

Obviously, I have two set of glasses, one orange and blue and the other black and gold. But the year's true story has to be the Alabama defense. I've never seen anything like it. My fiancee Jennifer gets bored watching them -- and she loves football. My heart goes out to Eddie Jackson and Shaun Dion Hamilton, two stellar players who will miss the playoffs due to injury. Of course, Bama has replacements who will be All-Americans in their own right. Rashaan Evans already looks the part. Anyway, here are the first 9 non-offensive touchdowns by the Crimson Tide. I mean, sheesh. 14.

Week 14 in the Vale of Tears: Rivalry Week

You'd think Rivalry Week would mean something. Oddly, the SEC has few true in-conference matchups for Rivalry Week -- really, just the Iron Bowl and the Egg Bowl. Maybe one day LSU-Texas A&M will excite somebody other than coaches about to get fired. Hard to imagine Arkansas-Mizzou will ever capture more hearts than Vandy-Tennessee. That tells you everything you need to know.

Otherwise, you have four SEC teams playing ACC rivals. Florida State's Jimbo Fisher is now 6-1 against Florida. Kentucky has lost the upper hand to Louisville, just as South Carolina is a distant second to Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers. Kentucky sure as hell enjoyed Saturday, and Carolina certainly did not. And somehow Georgia keeps losing to less talented Georgia Tech teams.

Nothing was really at stake this week except some pride. Alabama would go to the championship playoff with or without a victory over Auburn, and Florida was already set to meet them. So who's crying the hardest right now?

Next week, we'll sample tears from the entire season, but for now our attention rides on Rivalry Week. And the SEC's best player, hands down. Alabama's Jonathan Allen. Have mercy.

1. Already out of the SEC East race in a most disappointing fashion, Tennessee also lost a trip to the Sugar Bowl by falling apart in Nashville. The Vols jumped out to a 21-7 lead, led 31-24 at the half, and then watched the Dores score the game's final 21 points. Even this Vandy alum knows that a collapse of this sort against Vandy is shameful. The simple fact is, Vandy stepped up and kicked the Vols' butt. We'll say more about it, but Vandy's generally inept offense amassed 608 total yards. Vols fans are upset!

2. After getting completely blown out by inferior rival Mississippi State, Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said he was happy to see the season end. You just don't say that, Coach! Once a clear Top 10 team, the Rebs have simply collapsed. And it's not just the loss of Chad Kelly to injury. Something else is going on. I suspect it's looming NCAA sanctions that has everybody off their game. No bowl for the Black Bears.

3. It's impossible not to put miserable South Carolina right here after a 56-7 shellacking at the hands of state rival Clemson. After players tussled during warmups, Dabo Swinney even brushed off Will Muschamp's attempt at a pregame handshake. The video is worth watching.

4. If things we're so miserable in Oxford, Columbia, and Knoxville -- and I mean, unusually miserable -- the Arkansas Razorbacks would sit at #1 in complete misery. The Hogs were thinking they'd built some momentum again this year, but they managed to lose against the SEC's worst team. Simply put, the Bielemas just didn't bring it, and they paid the price. With Ole Miss and Mississippi State having awful seasons, Arkansas had a chance to shine. Instead, they walk in shame. Gonna be a long winter.

5. With 7 minutes remaining, Georgia led inferior rival Georgia Tech 27-14. And Tech's not set up to be a comeback team, you know? Well, the Yellow Jackets have won two of the last three editions of Clean Ole Fashioned Hate. More to the point, had Auburn not been crippled by injury, Kirby Smart's Dawgs would have finished 6-6 this season. That rush to push Mark Richt out the door? That seems a long, sad way back, don't it now?

6. Florida never looked competitive in its big matchup against Florida State. In fact, the Gators haven't scored an offensive touchdown against the Seminoles since 2014. Bama's next, and it's silly to think Florida can put up even the pitiful fight Auburn did. This is a pretty miserable SEC East Champion right here.

7. Texas A&M's inexplicable decline -- the Aggies were 6-0 before crashing into big, bad Bama -- culminated in an absolute whuppin' at the hands of LSU. Danny Etling passed for 324 yards, and Derrius Guice ran for 285 and 4 touchdowns. Yes, Trevor Knight's injury hurt the Aggies badly, but there's really no excusing losses to both Mississippi teams along the way. Kevin Sumlin has all the resources in the world, including the SEC's richest recruiting field. This year's team boasted a hotshot transfer QB, the nation's prettiest set of wide receivers, and probably the nation's best pair of defensive ends. But 6-0 wound up with 4 consecutive conference losses. Reveille is a little weepy -- but mostly anxious. You know, like dogs get anxious? That's not a good thing. What's that smell?

8. Auburn fans are kinda grumpy right now, having experienced total Iron Bowl domination at the hands of Alabama. Auburn's nationally respected offensive line repeatedly had their lunch handed to them by the Bama front, and four field goals felt like quite an accomplishment. On the other hand, Alabama got through the entire month of November without giving up a touchdown. Just as we predicted, Auburn had almost no chance without a healthy Sean White/Kamryn Pettway combination. A tough Auburn defense eventually buckled under the strain, and there you are. Coulda been worse. At least Alabama's defense didn't outscore Auburn's O.

9. Missouri feels a smidge of redemption, having beaten a decent Arkansas team in the season finale. To call it sparsely attended would be a massive understatement. They reported 51,043, but it didn't look that way. Hidden in Mizzou's misery was a reasonably dynamic offense that finished 21st in the nation in yards per game. Drew Lock passed for 3399 and 23 TDs, and Damarea Crockett rushed for 1062 and 10. J'Mon Moore was a monster with 62 catches for 1012 yards. Of course, Crockett missed the Arkansas game after being arrested for possession. Yet the Tigers persevered.

 10. LSU made the week's biggest news by losing out on Tom Herman hiring interim coach Ed Orgeron for its head coaching vacancy. Orgeron has a fabulous record as a defensive coordinator, and he's been successful as an interim. But in three years as head coach of Ole Miss he won exactly three conference games. So we'll see. Rumor has it he's trying to lure old buddy Lane Kiffin to direct his offense. And speaking of offense, LSU has certainly increased its torque with Les Miles no longer regulating the throttle. An up and down 7-4 season certainly has Bengal fans a little edgy, and Week 13's shameful loss to Florida really sours things, but spanking A&M helps.

11. We can only imagine how giddy Mississippi State fans must feel after ruining Ole Miss' season -- and having humiliated the Rebs in the process. Dan Mullen's offense is as quarterback-centric as you'll find in college football, and true freshman Nick Fitzgerald has emerged as the legit running-passing force the Bullies need. His 258 rushing yards against Ole Miss set the State single game rushing record for any position, and his 1243 yards for the season finished third in the SEC. Passing, the kid put up 21 TDs to 10 interceptions. There's a ceiling as to how high State can stay over a long period of time, but that ceiling includes the rare SEC championship. Mullen's a terrific coach, and things will get better in Starkville. No bowl this year, but State fans may be happier pulling Johnny Reb's pants down than they would be at 9-3.

12. After a rough start and before a hostile home crowd (as much orange as black and gold in the stadium) Vanderbilt just floored Tennessee. That game means a lot more to Vandy than to UT, but this was big. All along, we'd said Vandy was close to being competitive except for its passing game. But QB Kyle Schurmur has progressed wonderfully along with multiple receivers, and Vandy struck deep against the Vols on multiple occasions. As Tennessee's defense tired, Ralph Webb took over, setting Vandy's career rushing record while hanging 114 on Smokey. Before the game, Vandy was assured of a bowl invite even with a losing record, but this win earned the bid at 6-6. Vanderbilt fans are giddy. So is coach Derek Mason -- check out the joy in the video embedded here.

13. Kentucky started as a 27.5 point underdog to new money Louisville. But the Cats persevered, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat with a late turnover followed by a game winning field goal drive. If ever we've been wrong about anything, and we're not saying we have, it was calling Kentucky a disaster. Remember, this team lost to Southern Miss, got trounced 45-7 by an anemic Florida team, gave up 42 points to New Mexico State (!!!), and beat Vandy only because of a last minute dropped TD pass in the end zone. But hey, the Cats are 7-5 with a shiny new victory -- and they've shown guts in their improvement. That says a lot for coaching. Good on them.

14. Here are the things at which the Alabama defense is #1 nationally, per @colecubelic.

Notice, they've allowed 12 TDs and scored 9 themselves. No one has scored a touchdown on Alabama in November. The Tide isn't perfect. They're not invincible. With a dynamic offense Auburn and LSU would have been competitive. But we may never have seen a more dominant defense than this one. The Tide is just fine on offense and special teams too. Plus, winning the Iron Bowl always brings joy.

Week 13 in the Vale of Tears: I Have No Idea

If my students have heard it once, they've heard it... yeah. "Never apologize before presenting your work."

Well, being in San Antonio for a conference, I didn't watch much football this weekend. I did stuff like this.

And this.

Yep, that's my birdie putt. And this.

I'm the ugly one closest to the camera. 

So I don't know much about what really went down this week. I just know what I read. And with Donald Rumsfeld, I also know how much I don't know.

I mean, after posting what to my mind have been some pretty damn prescient analysis this season, I've been a mess the past couple of weeks. I have no idea. So here we go with the best I've got for Week 13. Expect some bad humor.

1. What the hell, Ole Miss? Kelly goes down, and I give up on you. Patterson looks like freaking Aaron Rogers -- the old version -- and I get back on the bus. So you travel to Vandy. And not only do you lose, you get trampled. Dominated. Black Beared. Land Sharked. Exposed. How to choose between Rebels and Bullies this week, I have no idea. I'll go with Rebs.

2. Having been forced to move its date with Florida due to hurricane, LSU openly boasted that the Gators were running skeered. This author predicted Gator stew. Saturday morning our cell phones lit up with the alert: "Fournette out." I worried a little bit. Should have worried big. Huge disappointment from LSU.

3. Florida must be so pleased with itself, having won the grudge match with LSU and earned an SEC East title. That's awesome. Maybe the Gators will choke out Florida State in the big rivalry. So why the long face? 

Get it?
Gators?
Long face?
We only do quality here.

Well, Florida also earned an extra game against Alabama in the Conference Championship game. It's good for exposure. Good for morale. Good for many, many tears.

We almost ranked the Gators #1.

4. Mizzou. Worst team in the league. Over and out.

5. State lost to Arkansas 58-42. Time was, such a score was inconceivable. Only a year ago, State's defense was so splendidly coached. Granted, they lost way too many key contributors, but this is an open latrine. No bowl for the Bullies (get it?), which is why I think they lose to Ole Miss. You should probably bet on State.

6. As it had to do, Auburn destroyed A&M. Alabama A&M, that is. Backup RB Kam Martin gained 176 yards. It was sweet to see Jeremy Johnson play effectively. A preseason Heisman Watch guy in 2015, a guy who lit up Arkansas in his only big start of 2014, Johnson has fallen apart against good teams that create chaos. Auburn faces Alabama this week, and it looks like Sean White won't be able to go. That's more than enough chaos, and Auburn has literally no answer. Expect a heroic early performance from the Auburn D, followed by a collapse due to carrying too heavy a load. Sad eyes in Auburn.

7. I can't understand what's up in College Station. Texas A&M has a lackluster win against UTSA. Stuff happens. But the Kevin Sumlin hot seat talk fires up again.

8. South Carolina beat Western Carolina. And who honestly cares? Showing signs of life and guaranteed a bowl appearance, the Gamecocks also feature obvious weaknesses. Clemson is next, and Clemson will be ready. As we've been saying, two more years.

9. Georgia beat Lafayette. I suppose that would feel good to redcoats. (Get it?) Who knows? They Dawgs will experience true happiness with a win over Georgia Tech. Hardly a given.

10. Last time we get to say it. Kentucky beat Peay. (Lord.) No biggie. Peay was 0-10 in the FCS. But the Cats are bowl bound at 6-5, facing a true defurring at the hands of an angry Louisville team. (Ugh.)

11. Ok, Arkansas, we see you. You're a bully. You beat up on weaklings. You trounce the overrated. And when you face a true meany, you crumble. Yeah, sure. 661 total yards against State. But Austin Allen is the real deal. 

12. Tennessee lit up Mizzou. But outside of some wing establishments, nobody in Knoxville is puffing out their chests. (Oy.) Smokey is a sweet mascot, but it looks like the Vols are just bullies. This week's visit to the Alamo reminded me that the heroic Davy Crockett was really just a redneck opportunist. At least he didn't surrender like Tennessee does.

13. You have to admire how Nick Saban refuses to shame weaker opponents. Alabama faced a quality FCS opponent in Chattanooga, but there's no reason to think Bama will be kind to a mean Auburn team that's missing its key offensive players. 

14. Vandy. Yes, I'm an alum. But Vandy! It's a surprise the Dores beat Ole Miss, but it's not a shock. What is shocking is that Vandy turned the Landsharks into hajkött. (We aim to educate.) And it's shocking that Vandy has found a working passing game. A win at home against UT will send Vandy to a bowl -- but that ain't happening. Weirdest of all: Vandy's computer ratings may send a 5-7 Commodore team to a bowl anyway. Watch the news.

Week 12 in the SEC Vale of Tears: Pandelirium

Here's my most annoying character flaw: I love saying "I told you so." Here's what I said about Auburn last week:

Bold prediction: Georgia plays Auburn tough. I can't even call an Auburn victory. If I were a cold blooded gambling fool, I'd take Georgia plus the 10.

In a week of pandelirium, Auburn was scarcely unique. Clemson and Michigan fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with last second field goals. Washington got exposed by Southern Cal. And Ole Miss' super recruit QB pulled off a comeback against #8 Texas A&M. Let's sort through all the crying, trying not to get snot all over our sleeves. We're gonna do lots of Auburn analysis as we move along.

1. The biggest crying has to come from Auburn. Favored by 10 on the road in Athens -- by the way, being a big favorite in Athens is like running up to the attic when the chainsaw murderer is on the loose -- Auburn needed this one win to set up its biggest game in years, a showdown with Bama for the SEC West and a likely trip to the championship playoff. Win or lose against Bama, a season that began with embarrassment would conclude with satisfaction.

But Auburn was crippled. Prior to the season, Auburn lost three high quality running backs. Peyton Barber left early for the NFL. Roc Thomas decided he wanted the ball more and demoted himself to Jax State. Most damaging of all, the splendid Jovon Robinson proved a problem for team morale and got booted from the team. Meanwhile, Auburn started the season with no clear leader at QB. Through the first three games, things still looked grim.

Then Kam Pettway emerged as a monster running back, second only to LSU's Leonard Fournette. The revitalized running game fueled itself with dominant run blocking, and QB Sean White emerged as a tough and efficient leader. Auburn rolled six straight opponents. But Pettway pulled a muscle against Vandy, and White still hasn't recovered.

Auburn's coaches cobbled together a dazzling run package for the tough Georgia defense. And Auburn got through the first half with a 7-0 lead. But one thing was evident: Sean White was not ok. Auburn ran versions of wildcat and used John Franklin III at QB. Not once did White throw downfield. Georgia figured it out too, and things got ugly. Of White's 6 completions -- six! -- two occurred on little jet sweep tosses. Auburn is done.

2. Kentucky had never lost a game in which it rushed for 400 yards. Five Wildcats rushed for 70+ yards each in Knoxville Saturday. Who does that? But Kentucky yielded 49 points to the Vols and crashed back to earth. Kentucky has never won the East, and this is the closest the Cats have gotten. Still, beating Peay (we do it every week) will get the Cats to a bowl game. Mark Stoops will return. In case you're wondering, Austin Peay is 0-10.

3. Texas A&M has crashed to reality. The Aggies didn't really expect to beat Bama, but they had to feel kinda comfy holding a 21-6 lead against a wounded Ole Miss squad. The Rebs drew close, but A&M apparently closed the deal with 6:41 left and a 28-19 lead at home. While everybody's hootin' & hollerin' over Jacob Eason over in Athens, Ole Miss' Shea Patterson led the comeback with 338 passing yards. More on him below.

4. Vanderbilt's bowl hopes effectively ended in Columbia, Missouri. All along the Vandy defense has been better than average in the SEC, a genuine accomplishment, though Mizzou moved the ball pretty well, especially early. Hope has emerged with QB Kyle Shurmur's improvement. Down 6-0, however, Shurmur threw an inexplicable pick-six to put the Dores in a hole. Mizzou took a 19-0 lead, Vandy crawled back to 19-17, but the Dores just couldn't climb the ladder. 4-8 will taste much worse than 5-7 in Nashville.

5. South Carolina was helpless at Florida. Jake Bentley played OK -- we've been praising him all along. But he also took or suffered 5 sacks. Which is it? That's yours to call. The Cocks face 2-8 Western Carolina to earn their bowl bid. That'll feel nice, but there's nothing to brag about. I do think Will Muschamp will make this program tough again.

6. If you can really run the ball, you want a shot against Arkansas. We're big fans of freshman QB Austin Allen at QB, but LSU's splendid defense garned two picks off him. Meanwhile, LSU's Derrius Guice outshined Fournette with 252 rushing yards, including a 96 yard dash as a fourth quarter exclamation point. If your running game ain't so great, though, you'd rather not see the Hogs.

7. Bama 51, Mississippi State 3. What else did you expect? Nick Fitzgerald has done well so far, another promising freshman QB, but he wasn't ready for Tuscaloosa. Last week's bold prediction that Moo State would go bowling is looking a little rash now that Ole Miss has found its fighting spirit. Hard to see the Bullies managing both Arkansas and Ole Miss.

8. Missouri's win over Vanderbilt has to lessen the sting of a truly wretched season. It was Mizzou's first (and last) conference win of the season. Drew Lock played well against Vandy's fierce defense, and the Tigers also established some running consistency, especially early. I don't see any wins the rest of the season, and Mizzou will have lots of work to do in the off-season. But let's face it: a single conference win feels far better than 0-8.

It gets hard to rank happy teams from this point on.

9. Tennessee had to be feeling some bad mojo as Kentucky came to town, but the Vols clearly pulled together. Dominated by the UK running game, Tennessee countered by scoring in bunches. Tennessee looks likely to finish with a 9-3 record that must feel like a huge disappointment. That assessment shows how far Butch Jones has brought the Vols, but it also suggests that something's missing. Tennessee must hope for LSU to take down Florida in order to for Smokey to earn a rematch against Big Al in the conference championship game. Unfortunately for Tennessee, Florida isn't good enough to prevent that rematch. If the Vols beat Mizzou and Vandy, expect them to roll over and play dead against Bama. That's ugly to say, but did you see what Bama did to Tennessee?

BONUS: If I give myself credit for alerting us of the peril Auburn was in, there's a little crow to eat. I said Ole Miss was done and wouldn't make a bowl. Well, Shea Patterson. It'll be fascinating to see how the Rebs negotiate the combination of a disappointing season, an NCAA investigation, and a stellar new QB.

10. Florida yawned its way to victory over South Carolina, setting up a huge game with LSU. Beat the Tigers, and Florida wins the East. We have two thoughts. (1) Tennessee has already seen enough or Bama, but Florida doesn't know what it's getting into. (2) But Florida just isn't good enough to overcome the Bengal Tigers.

11. Is Alabama disappointed that the defense failed to score against Mississippi State? Otherwise, the Tide pulled off a truly dominant performance. In my view, Bama's passing game looks great against inferior teams, just okay against good ones. The Tide OL just isn't that dominant. But when the defense puts pressure on the opponent, and the offense gets that sweet field position, Jalen Hurts might just hang 4 TDs on you. Bama's receivers remain outstanding.

12. LSU rebounded from a tough loss to Alabama, which says everything for Ed Orgeron as a coach. Bama usually inflicts deep, invisible wounds on opponents, making it tough to play well the following week. But LSU played a complete game against, Arkansas, and Derrius Guice reminded us how explosive he truly is. Easy to forget that Guice leads LSU with 881 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per carry. That's huge! Look at the speed on this run.

13. For all the Jacob Eason love, Ole Miss may have found a savior in super-recruit QB Shea Patterson. Huge Freeze had been holding out Patterson for a redshirt year, but Chad Kelly's season-ending injury left the Rebs in a desperate spot. It's a big risk to rip the redshirt off a kid late in the season, but Patterson was ready. Once falling apart, the Rebs are likely to end 7-5 and feel optimistic heading into 2017 with Patterson and those spectacular receivers. Pending results from the NCAA, of course.

14. Ugh. I mean, UGA. Now having beaten Kentucky and Auburn, Georgia has to feel a lot better about itself. Auburn's a huge rival for the Dawgs, who now sit 6-4 and think 8-4 is possible. The tough UGA defense was well prepared, and when Kirby Smart saw Auburn's offensive limitations the adjustments were devastating. I've never been a critic of Jacob Eason. He looks like the real deal. Eason played well, and Georgia got some flow on offense against a vicious Auburn defense, but let's not get ahead of ourselves: Georgia's offense never managed to find the end zone against Auburn. Georgia is riding high today, as it should, but they're not a good team yet.

BONUS: Freshman QBs have exerted an enormous impact in the SEC, almost entirely positive. Bama's Jalen Hurts conducts an offense that ranges from effective to explosive. Highly recruited Shea Patterson should have future opponents extremely anxious, and his peer Jacob Eason is doing exactly what a future star should. Nick Fitzgerald and Jake Bentley are better than solid at State and Carolina, respectively. And we especially like Austin Allen at Arkansas.

Week 11 in the Vale of Tears: Aggie Ennui

Joy is hard to come by in the Bible Belt these days. The Week 11 winners feel like survivors, not victors, and the losers face truth square in the mirror. Thanks to Vale reader Eric Barreto, who called me back to reason with the reminder that Texas A&M must rank #1 among the weeping due to its fall from a #4 ranking in the College Football Playoff poll. Yeah, maybe. We'll have to talk about that.

A couple of weeks ago the Vale singled our Vandy linebacker Zach Cunningham for stopping Georgia's last-minute drive by sheer force of will. Cunningham is a wonderful player, a Butkus Award finalist, and some tout him as SEC defensive player of the year. Not quite. But his heroic block of an Auburn field goal will go down as a great moment in Commodore history. Fittingly, this spectacular play comes in a loss. It's still worth watching.

Meanwhile, our rankings.

1. I don't know that the Aggies cried very much after getting spanked by Moo State. Yes, it came as a shock to all of us. Sure, State has looked wretched all season. But you know what? First, A&M gave up 35 to the Bullies, which just shouldn't happen. (State still has Auburn cleat marks on its posterior.) Second, before you make a thing of Aggie QB Trevor Knight's injury, remember that Jake Hubenak was more effective in relief. The truth is, the Aggies were not playoff material. They knew it. Fate knew it. Apparently Dan Mullen knew it.

2. Ole Miss eeked out a win over Georgia Southern, but they lost the SEC's best QB Chad Kelly in the process. That's especially bad because (a) the Rebs relied way too much on Kelly for their success and (b) they seem to be slipping in the mojo department. Oh, and (c) we feel really bad for Kelly. One never knows how much an NCAA investigation weighs on a program, but I'm growing suspicious. Ole Miss is 4-5, and here's a bold prediction: the Rebs will stay home for the holidays.

3 and 4. I wanted to put Florida and Kentucky at #1 before Professor Barreto's timely intervention. Let's face it: nobody's good enough to win the East, and nobody really wants to. After all, would you want an extra game against Alabama? After a bye week, Arkansas totally exposed the Gators for the pretenders we've always said they are, while Georgia somehow came back to beat Kentucky. Neither team is particularly good, and now Kentucky really needs to beat Tennessee. The Wildcats will settle for beating Peay (I do it every week, y'all) and going to a pitiful bowl game.

BONUS: Remember The Pattern? The week after a big game, especially a road game and especially a win, SEC teams are particularly vulnerable. Florida just beat Georgia at a neutral site, and they just couldn't step up to Arkansas, who was coming off a bye week. 

5. Missouri just doesn't have it. Awful nice of South Carolina coach Will Muschamp to encourage Mizzou's Barry Odom not to get too down. Watch the video, and get the Kleenex.

6. I know Tennessee beat Tennessee Tech 55-0, but something smells real, real bad in Knoxville. Star RB Jalen Hurd left the team last week to transfer somewhere else, and the recruiting class of 2014 has lost over a dozen players. I'm a big fan of coach Butch Jones, but I'm not sure how the Vols will recover.

7. That was a tough loss for the LSU Tigers. Bama's defense is historically good, and LSU's almost the same. The Tigers will be a little beat up, but trust me: they are done losing for this season. What an incredible performance by the Tiger D, with talent flying all over the field.

8. Bold prediction: Mississippi State will go bowling! I know that's a quick reaction, but look at the schedule. The Bullies are 4-5, and wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss will get them there. Never mind: Arkansas is just too good. But QB Nick Fitzgerald may just have found himself, which is huge for the Bulldogs' attitude.

9. Vanderbilt probably cried a little after losing to Auburn. You can always count on the Dores defense. In addition to Saint Zach Cunningham, the Vale would like to single out LB Ja'Karri Thomas, S Ryan White, and S Arnold Tarpley for their physical play. The big news, though, is QB Kyle Schumur, who played his best game against the toughest defense Vandy will see. If this is a breakthrough for him, bold prediction: Vandy beats two of Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Tennessee to make a bowl game. I really believe it.

10. South Carolina is coming on, albeit against weak competition, and QB Jake Bentley is gonna be solid in that program. Plus, the defense isn't awful. In fact, nobody has really exposed the Gamecock defense, something we've overlooked so far. Improvement through the season is a sign of good coaching, you know. Now 5-4, the Cocks are going bowling -- and nobody saw that!

11. It looks like a win in Lexington means something these days. Therefore, Georgia is feeling a mixture of pride and vulnerability. The Dogs have been embarrassed a time or two, with a beat-up Auburn team coming next. To be honest, I'm sick of commentators anointing Jacob Eason the next messiah. As if other young QBs haven't performed at least as well: Austin Allen, Nick Fitzgerald, and Jake Bentley come to mind. But Eason played well on the road and led a winning comeback drive. He also makes throws other QBs cannot.

12. People are calling Auburn the hottest team in the country, but Vanderbilt put a physical pounding on the already-wounded Tigers. The Pattern caught up to Auburn too. After a taxing win at Ole Miss, Auburn QB Sean White sat out the first half with a shoulder injury -- but backup John Franklin couldn't do enough to win the game. White's injury became obvious on a couple of squirrelly throws. Monster RB Kam Pettway, a serious SEC Player of the Year candidate, pulled up lame with what looks to be an upper quad pull. No one knows what to expect from that. Auburn's other wonderful RB Kerryon Johnson still suffers from an ankle sprain: he's fast, but he's neither agile nor quick. And LB Tre Williams couldn't play. Auburn is way too good for Georgia, but only if White is ok and the RB corps can produce. Bold prediction: Georgia plays Auburn tough. I can't even call an Auburn victory. If I were a cold blooded gambling fool, I'd take Georgia plus the 10.

13. Humbled at Auburn, Arkansas is walking tall after a big helping of Gator stew. The bye week did them worlds of good, especially dinged up freshman QB Austin Allen. I've been hooting about him all season. Tough kid. Reasonably talented. Future heartthrob of Hogs fans everywhere.

 14. My Lord, what a glorious win by Alabama. I observed all kinds of fans -- even professional commentators! -- whining that a 0-0 game is boring. Hell no! You could cut the tension with a knife. All it took was one missed assignment by a defender on either team, and everything would have changed. Alabama made no such mistake. The Tide allowed 25 yards after halftime. Yep, that was a crimson font. And look at this: In 2015 and 2016, Leonard Fournette has averaged 7.45 yards per carry against everyone else, just 1.85 against Bama. Swallow that whole.

FINAL COMMENT: Baylor's coaches and players continue their defense of former coach Art Briles. One easily understands the loyalty people feel toward a beloved leader. Last week Baylor's assistant coaches tweeted their support for Briles, while one player stated the team's black uniforms were chosen to honor the former coach. (He and the university later walked back that claim.)

Every time a Baylor public figure defends Briles, he (because it's all men, so far as I know) revictimizes the women on that campus. So says rape survivor and justice advocate Brenda Tracy in a public statement.

Somehow the grownups need to take charge. Indeed, ESPN's Paula Lavigne reports that key Baylor donors are pushing for an overhaul of the university's board of regents, full disclosure of the Pepper Hamilton investigation that led to the dismissal of Briles and president Ken Starr, and the installation of a gold standard Title IX program. Will grownups prevail over football children? We'll see.

Week 10 in the SEC Vale of Tears: Smokey's Sniffles and Magnolia Misery

If you're tempted to think of SEC football players as simple hired hands, consider this photo taken by Auburn offensive guard Alex Kozan upon returning to campus after Saturday night's win over Ole Miss.

The state of Mississippi is feeling some hurt right now, and outsiders will need an explanation. Traditionally, Alabama and Auburn dominate the Mississippi schools, but both Ole Miss and State have been punching back lately. Ole Miss won the state of Alabama last year, you know. Apart from tradition, there's no reason for Ole Miss to lag behind the Alabama programs. (State, being both small and in the SEC's worst college town, has a steeper hill to climb.) Ole Miss was primed to go big this year, but disappointing losses against great teams, a spate of injuries, and the specter of NCAA sanctions all have the Rebs feeling like their progress is threatened. That an Auburn player like Kozan is feeling emotional after winning in Oxford tells you how far Hugh Freeze has brought Ole Miss.

1. Stewart Mandel tweeted the possibility that Alabama broke Tennessee. I'm not so sure that's the case; the Vale has been skeptical of the Vols all along. But there's no question which mascot is howling at the moon the saddest these days. All Tennessee had to do was beat inferior teams and let Florida lose to LSU. I don't know what's wrong with Tennessee, but something clearly is.

News flash: Jalen Hurd has left the Tennessee program and intends to transfer. This is 14 players recruited in 2014 who have left the program. So yeah. Something ain't right.

2. Remember, you cry most when you have something to lose, and Ole Miss peeps are still drying their eyes. The actual performance wasn't that bad. Three offensive line injuries is a lot to endure against Auburn's defensive front. And except for a two-play sequence, it's easy to imagine the Black Bears winning this game: tight end Evan Engram ran free in Auburn's backfield all night but dropped an imperfect Chad Kelly pass, then on the next play Auburn's Josh Holsey picked off a rare Kelly misfire to turn the game around. Ole Miss is 3-5, and trust me: you wouldn't want to play them.

BONUS: Texas A&M has the prettiest four receivers in college football, but Ole Miss has the most impressive depth chart. Every one of those guys can play. Freshman A.J. Brown is a true monster: watch out for him in coming years.

3. I hate to keep saying the same thing, but you gotta wonder how bad Georgia fans miss Mark Richt. Kirby Smart may build an even better program than Richt did, but there's no question Richt would have done better this year. Georgia is just bad, and that doesn't happen often.

4. My friend Duane McGee pointed out Missouri's embarrassing attendance: 50,234 is the Kittens' lowest home conference attendance since 2005. And since they play in a big place, it looked a lot worse than that. Here are two other things that look bad. Mizzou wasn't seriously competitive against Kentucky. Kentucky! And Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible: the one they're counting on is Mizzou.

5.  Mississippi State thrilled the home fans by giving up 41 points to Samford. Wow, they've fallen a long way post-Dak. But clearly it's not just Dak, and the question is whether Dan Mullen can pull things back together again in such a fierce division.

6. Arkansas desperately needed a bye so Bret Bielema could meet the QB Club ladies for his tee time. You've probably seen the commercial, but if you haven't, click the link!

7. Vanderbilt got a bye before a visit to (gasp) Auburn. Vandy needs two wins to become bowl-eligible; Auburn is playing for an SEC championship. The other games are Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Better hope the Rebs or Vols are demoralized, which is a possibility. Vandy can frustrate Auburn, but Auburn's defense is just too much.

8. Having lost to Bama, Texas A&M now feels no pressure. In fact, they could easily go 11-1 without really accomplishing much. (Ole Miss and LSU lie ahead.) Pounding New Mexico State means nothing. So the Aggies are happy in their mediocrity.

9. South Carolina somehow beat Tennessee at home, and they showed some guts in doing it. They also have a freshman QB who looks like a player. If that's the case, Will Muschamp will build a stout defense, and the Gamecocks will once again become inconvenient. That might happen in Jake Bentley's junior year. The Cocks are happy today.

10. Florida beat Georgia, proving nothing but benefiting from Tennessee's shocking fall. Now the Gators have a challenge. We've said all along they're not very good, and there's no evidence to contradict us. The Gators have already beaten Kentucky, so they can clinch things by beating two of Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU. Can they do it? I see two losses there.

11 & 12. LSU and Alabama show respect for one another by scheduling a bye week prior to their matchup. Bama is enjoying the bliss of superiority, while LSU can sniff redemption. Having gotten Les Miles fired, the Bengal Cats are fired up. They don't have enough to handle the Tide, but who knows in this series?

13. Auburn is giddy. A win before the second largest crowd in Ole Miss history is nothing to sneeze at, and Auburn overcame withering fire from the Rebs' Chad Kelly. If you really watch Auburn, it's the true freshmen that have your eyes bugging out: Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown on the defensive line and three deadly wide receivers, not to mention redshirt freshman Darius Slayton. Auburn is heavily favored to show up in Tuscaloosa 9-2, beginning to attract playoff talk. Obviously, Bama is better than Auburn, but that guarantees nothing. House money, that's what Auburn's playing with. So long as they don't slip up.

BONUS: QB Sean White is one tough hombre. He's leading the SEC in passing efficiency, but that's because Auburn's scheme protects him. I'd like to see him improve his focus and footwork, as he can be inaccurate when Auburn needs consistency. But let's pat this guy on the back: winning Auburn's QB race was sort of like surviving Russian roulette, only to fight at Austerlitz. Yet White has overcome.

14. Kentucky is the happiest of all. The Cats have beaten absolutely no one: Southern Miss is their only victim with a winning record. They need to beat Georgia (here's saying they will) and Tennessee (uh-oh), then watch Florida collapse, and they win their first SEC East title. And play Alabama again. Highly unlikely, but let's pause and collect ourselves: it's Week 10, and Kentucky could win its division. Early on, it looked like Mark Stoops would be fired at season's end. That won't happen, Kentucky is going bowling, but don't be fooled. This is not a good team. According to Sagarin's computers, Kentucky is the nation's 67th best team. It's that sad in the East, folks.

Week 9 in This Vale of Tears

Experienced readers will notice that we've changed our name from The SEC Misery Index to This Vale of Tears. Last week a Google search revealed that "Misery Index" had already been done. We were disappointed, but now we celebrate this opportunity. For is not misery a spiritual condition? Does it not cry for redemption, however ephemeral?

I mean, will Arkansas fans ever taste final redemption? I don't think so. But they want it. So. Very. Badly.

We've reached the point in the season at which disillusionment has set in far more broadly than in Arkansas. As Siddhartha knew, deep pain comes from expectations. Once those expectations are done away with -- are you hearing this, Starkville and both Columbias? -- pain diminishes in its acuity. Oxford and College Station, comfort awaits, for now you know your place.

We've also learned to calibrate our expectations for big games. SEC football is so intense that we have to allow for letdowns. How to recognize a letdown? Let us consider three factors.

1. You just played an intense game that meant a lot to you.
2. It was on the road.
3. You won.

Any of these three factors predicts a letdown. Against quality opposition, the combination is deadly. Ironically, winning seems to be more costly than losing. Only Alabama can rise above it. Look for the Pattern below.

So in order of pain, our rankings.

1. Arkansas fans, don't let yourselves dwell in self-pity. It's not as bad as it looks. At least, it doesn't have to be. Yes, you gave up 543 rushing yards (!!!) to a mediocre offense that lacked its starting running back. Yes, we sensed you were overrated. But you're also a victim of the Pattern, having played Alabama and Ole Miss (albeit, both at home) before visiting Auburn. And you beat Ole Miss, the kiss of death. Auburn surely exposed weaknesses on both lines, but your QB remains splendid and courageous. You're not that bad.

2. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is feeling a world of hurt. No one was surprised by the quick 10-0 lead. But then Leonard Fournette. Dear Lord. Ole Miss is too good on defense, too tough, too well disciplined to fall apart like that. And fall apart, it did. Again, the Rebs succumbed to the Pattern. And momentum is crashing in. Auburn is next, and although Mississippi is the better team, Auburn is gonna beat Mississippi in Oxford. Just too much disappointment.

3.  Only because it still held some tatters of hope does Mississippi State outrank Mizzou and Carolina. It's clear that Kentucky is only modestly bad. It's also true that the Cats are more formidable at home than on the road. But now State faces the worst of dilemmas. The program is moving backwards, a 3-9 season seems very, very likely, and Dan Mullen is the best coach the Bullies have ever had. They're proud in Starkville, and falling behind Arkansas and Ole Miss is the kiss of death for a coach. I recommend hanging in one more year.

4. Missouri, what the actual heck? We briefly thought you might just be bad rather than putrid. And then MTSU hangs 34 points on you -- in the first half. You come back and take the lead, then you find yourself behind by 10 in the fourth quarter. Just too much. This is a special level of miserable.

5. Everybody, congratulate South Carolina on its heroic win against UMass, the current number 141 in the Sagarin ratings! One. Four. One. Yes, the Gamecocks built a respectable 34-14 lead before hanging on by their little chicken toes. But someone named Marquis Young rushed for 123 yards against Carolina, and we
just
don't
know
what to say.

6-7. Florida and Georgia didn't play, as is customary before the Cocktail Party. Florida is 5-1 on smoke and mirrors -- well, on the SEC East being awful -- and the Gators will finish with a nice record. For its part, Georgia is just not good. Look for a decisive Gator win next week -- decisive, but not a blowout.

8. You'd expect big tears from Texas A&M, but if you see any, they're fake. Deep in their hearts, Aggies fans knew they weren't in Alabama's class. The Aggies took a brief lead in the third quarter after Bama had squandered multiple opportunities, then the truth came to light. The Aggies just couldn't stop Alabama's running game. And while Trevor Knight is a dynamic QB, Bama's pass rush is just too, too much. Watch out: A&M is a very good team. They just ran into Bama. No shame there.

9. In the words of my high school coach, Buddy Moore, Vanderbilt fans don't know whether to wind their ass or scratch their watch. The Commodores have scratched their way to 4-4, with an outside chance of a bowl game. But let's face it: You should put away Tennessee State well before the fourth quarter, and that bowl game requires beating Auburn, Mississippi, or Tennessee in addition to Missouri. In the end, Vandy peeps will feel good at 5-7, with happy momentum and the knowledge that they really "should" have beaten Carolina.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE: Vandy plays Auburn next week. I'm an alum of both Vandy (PhD, 1996) and the Pat Dye Football Camp (1981). I always root for the team that has the most to gain. Last time, it was Vandy. It might look like I should choose Vandy this time, but here's my reasoning. Vandy is not much happier at 5-7 than at 6-6 plus a bowl game. But Auburn is really building something that could grow to be special. So I'll root for Auburn with a divided heart. Auburn is just too much for Vandy. Vandy can't score on Auburn, but Auburn shouldn't blow them out. So long as Vandy doesn't blow up with turnovers, it'll be a decisive but respectable Auburn win.

10. That was a really nice win for Kentucky. We admit we'd written off the Cats as a disaster. And really they are. We just had no idea how weak the East would be. They're also destined for a bowl game, with games against Missouri and Georgia straight ahead. Win one of those and beat Peay (we still love saying that.), and a bowl it is. Stoops will keep his job, and maybe the Cats will go back to improving. But make no mistake: this year has been ugly. Lose to both Mizzou and Georgia, and there's a coaching change ahead.

11. Tennessee didn't play. Teams typically do poorly after playing Alabama, so they're happy with a bye week. And rooting against Florida every week, since a Gators loss will probably hand them the East and an invitation to lose spectacularly to Alabama again.

12. Auburn is very, very happy after its complete dismantling of Arkansas. But let's be cautious. The Bielemas ran into the Pattern, and they were just worn out. Some big plays early set the snowball rolling downhill, and -- to its credit -- Auburn just kept gathering rocks and snow. It's a very good thing Auburn has already faced LSU, a match parents should not show their children for its physicality. Now we can say this: Auburn can beat anyone it plays, but it has to keep improving, especially the passing game, and it has to play well. By the way, Auburn now ranks #7 in Sagarin. That's probably about right.

BONUS: Good signs for Auburn. It didn't need the rehabbing Kerryon Johnson against Arkansas, and it didn't overuse Kamryn Petway. They'll need both.

DOUBLE BONUS: Auburn doesn't enjoy Bama's spectacular depth on the defensive line, but it's not that far away. Three Tiger linemen will depart for the NFL this year. Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams are spectacular. But three more are emerging to be just as good: the spectacular Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown are true freshmen. But watch Byron Cowart! Two years removed from being the nation's #1 recruit, the defensive end hasn't done much yet. But Auburn's moving him inside to tackle, and he made a big impact against Arkansas, just dominating people. Watch out, people.

13. LSU loves beating Ole Miss. The Tigers have no true rival, so they settle for being hated on a lower level by everybody else. This whipping of the uppity Rebels (and don't you love the phrase, uppity Rebels?) showed that LSU is still LSU. Bama is next, and it's easy to forget: an LSU win likely puts the Tigers in the championship game! Don't count on it. Bama will win a close one against LSU. But keep that in mind.

14. Bama, yikes. Let's assume Bama was feeling the Pattern, coming off a road win against historic rival Tennessee. Only, the game wasn't close. Bama stumbled around for a half, then righted the ship. Never was there a question who had the better team. Once again, Bama scored a defensive touchdown. That's 10 games in a row with a non-offensive touchdown, an all-time record, and 12 such scores this season. And let's pause to grieve the loss of Eddie Jackson, an all-world recruit who found out he needed to improve at Alabama -- and who has improved greatly as a safety and punt returner to become an All-American. Three of those TDs are his.

BONUS: BAMA AND THE PLAYOFFS. Ohio State's loss last night doesn't diminish the Buckeyes' chances one bit, but it does remind us that every team is more likely to lose than to go undefeated. I expect Bama to make it all the way to the playoffs loss-free, but they do face both sets of resurgent Tigers. Bama's only apparently weakness is that Hurts isn't particularly awesome when things get sketchy around him. Bama knows what Ohio State just found out: a truly great team can lose. But gosh, Alabama has dominated most everybody they've seen. Even Ole Miss started out with a huge lead built on quirky plays but couldn't hold on.

THE VALE'S DELIVERER OF TEARS. Last week we singled out Vanderbilt's Zach Cunningham and called attention to Alabama's Reuben Foster as a case study in the Tide's depth. Confessionally, the Vale's favorite players are Auburn's twin defensive ends, Carl Lawson and Marlon Davidson, who play with true passion. But this week Alabama's Mack Wilson takes the cake for two devastating hits on kickoff returns.

Here's #1 on Speedy Noil, who somehow abides among the living.

Noil lost a tooth, as you can see here.

Wilson's second victim was Justin Evans, who apparently has entered the witness protection program. Or should. Immediately.

CBS debated whether these hits were legal. Look, a kickoff returner is a fast moving target. They're legal. And inspirational. All hail Mack Wilson.